I went on a movie-watching binge during my semester break in the U.S., catching up on all the Oscar-nominated films I missed while I was in China. I saw 11 movies in all — the nine best-picture nominees plus “Blue Jasmine’’ and “August: Osage County’’ since they included four Oscar-nominated acting performances.

When I was a film critic, I wrote an annual Oscar picks column that was surprisingly accurate. (I say surprisingly because, during my sports writing days, my game predictions had a lower winning percentage than the 1962 Mets.)

Here then are my picks for the 86th Academy Awards, which will be handed out Sunday night (Monday morning in China). Keep in mind that I also predicted McGovern over Nixon, Sham over Secretariat, and Argentina over Great Britain in the Falklands War.

BEST PICTURE 

Nominees: “American Hustle,’’ “Captain Phillips,’’ “Dallas Buyers Club,’’ “Gravity,’’ “Her,’’ “Nebraska,’’ “Philomena,’’ “12 Years a Slave,’’ “The Wolf of Wall Street.’’

The Skinny: According to oddsmakers, it’s a two-way race between “12 Years a Slave’’ and “Gravity,’’ with “American Hustle’’ given an outside shot at an upset. I loved “Her’’ and “Nebraska,’’ but they’re too plodding and personal to win. Oscar voters tend to favor serious subjects, so I’m picking “Slave.’’

Should Win: “12 Years a Slave.’’

Will Win: “12 Years a Slave.’’

BEST DIRECTOR 

Nominees: David O. Russell (“American Hustle’’), Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity’’), Alexander Payne (“Nebraska’’), Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave’’), Martin Scorsese (“The Wolf of Wall Street).

The Skinny: Best picture and best director usually go hand in hand, but this year could be an exception. While “12 Years a Slave’’ is expected to win best picture, Cuaron is favored in the directing category. I agree that Cuaron deserves the award for his brilliant imagining of outer space in “Gravity.’’

Should Win: Cuaron.

Will Win: Cuaron.

BEST ACTOR 

Nominees: Christian Bale (“American Hustle’’), Bruce Dern (“Nebraska’’), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street’’), Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave’’), Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club’’).

The Skinny: Once a pretty boy who specialized in lame romantic comedies, McConaughey has taken on meatier roles in recent years and showed off his acting chops. He’s the favorite here for his performance as a redneck rodeo cowboy who becomes an AIDS crusader after getting the disease. Ejiofor is his chief rival.

Should Win: Dern.

Will Win: McConaughey.

BEST ACTRESS 

Nominees: Amy Adams (“American Hustle’’), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine’’), Sandra Bullock (“Gravity’’), Judi Dench (“Philomena’’), Meryl Streep (“August: Osage County’’).

The Skinny: Blanchett appears to be a lock for her roller-coaster role as a New York socialite whose life falls apart following her breakup with her philandering husband. The other contenders are Bullock, who plays an astronaut stranded in space, and Adams, for her performance as a flamboyant con artist enmeshed in the Abscam scandal.

Should Win: Dench.

Will Win: Blanchett.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips’’), Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle’’), Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave’’), Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street’’), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club’’).

The Skinny: Leno is the prohibitive favorite for his scene-stealing role as a transgender AIDS victim. Fassbender is considered the main challenger for his turn as a sadistic slave owner, though I’m partial to Abdi’s chilling performance as a Somali pirate whose gang hijacks a U.S. cargo ship.

Should Win: Abdi.

Will Win: Leto.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine’’), Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle’’), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave’’), Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County’’), June Squibb (“Nebraska’’).

The Skinny: A match race between Lawrence and Nyong’o, who play characters from different universes. Lawrence is the ditsy wife of a con man, while Nyong’o is a proud slave abused by her brutal owner.

Should Win: Nyong’o.

Will Win: Nyong’o.